[Sampanviking]

Really not sure where to stand on this one

http://news.bbc.co.u...fic/8607324.stm

On the face of it, it has all the hallmarks of US Interference (the Kyrgyz are the only other Central Asian Republic with a US presence) and so should by that measure give a warning to all others as to the consequences of accepting the yankee dollar.

On the other hand however this is a Govt that came to power in a colour revolution in 2005 and which backed down in its intention to close the US Base at Manas.

Add to that I have no idea as to who the opposition are and what they stand for.

So who are the good guys and the baddies here?

[Sampanviking]

An update on the BBC website (probably the same link as above) now states that the riots were sparked when the main opposition leader was arrested after arriving by plane from Moscow. Russia has also denied having a hand in the uprising.

Looks like the opposition are our guys and the current President a Dog Washer.

[flyzies]

This has hallmarks of foreign intervention written all over it. Hard to tell who's on whose side until more information becomes available. But keep in mind the president (or former president now) did screw Russia over by formally kicking US base out then backing off after he received Russian financial aid.

[Ruriko Ikusawa]

Here's an update:

Kyrgyzstan opposition 'in charge'

I wonder if this will be the start of a series of "Colour Counter-revolutions"?

[Ruriko Ikusawa]

Here's an essay on this by Richard Rozoff, he occasionally writes for Global Research, and I think that many here would find his blog interesting. Without further ado...

Quote

Stop NATO
April 7, 2010

Kyrgyzstan And The Battle For Central Asia
Rick Rozoff

Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev was deposed five years after and in the same manner as he came to power, in a bloody uprising.

Elected president two months after the so-called Tulip Revolution of 2005 he helped engineer, he was since then head of state of the main transit nation for the U.S. and NATO war in Afghanistan.

The Pentagon secured the Manas Air Base (as of last year known as the Transit Center at Manas) in Kyrgyzstan shortly after its invasion of Afghanistan in October of 2001 and in the interim, according to a U.S. armed forces publication last June, ?More than 170,000 coalition personnel passed through the base on their way in or out of Afghanistan, and Manas was the transit point for 5,000 tons of cargo, including spare parts and equipment, uniforms and various items to support personnel and mission needs.

?Currently, around 1,000 U.S. troops, along with a few hundred from Spain and France, are assigned to the base.? [1]

The White House?s Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan Richard Holbrooke paid his first visit in his current position to Kyrgyzstan ? and the three other former Soviet Central Asian republics which border it, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan ? in February and said ?35,000 US troops were transiting each month on their way in and out of Afghanistan.? [2] At the rate he mentioned, 420,000 troops annually.

The U.S. and NATO also established military bases in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan for the war in South Asia, but on a smaller scale. (U.S. military forces were ordered out of the second country following what the government claimed was a Tulip Revolution-type armed uprising in its province of Andijan less than two months after the Kyrgyz precedent. Germany maintains a base near the Uzbek city of Termez to transit troops and military equipment to Afghanistan?s Kunduz province where the bulk of its 4,300 forces is concentrated.)

In February of 2009 the Bakiyev government announced that it was also evicting U.S. and NATO forces from its country, but relented in June when Washington offered it $60 million to reverse its decision.

Kyrgyzstan borders China.

It not only borders China, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, but is only separated from Russia by a single nation, Kazakhstan. To gain an appreciation of Russian and Chinese concerns over hundreds of thousands of U.S. and NATO troops passing through Kyrgyzstan, imagine a comparable amount of Chinese and Russian soldiers regularly passing through Mexico and Guatemala, respectively. For almost nine years and at an accelerating rate.

It is not only a military ?hard power? but also a ?soft power? threat that the Western role in Kyrgyzstan poses to Russia and China.

The nation is a member of the post-Soviet Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) along with Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan ? seen by many as the only counterpart to NATO on former Soviet space ? and of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) with China, Russia and the three above-mentioned Central Asian nations.

According to U.S. officials, during and after the Tulip Revolution of 2005 not a single U.S. or NATO flight into the Manas Air Base was cancelled or even delayed. But a six-nation CSTO exercise scheduled for days afterward was cancelled.

The uprising and the deposing of standing president Askar Akayev in March of 2005 was the third self-styled ?color revolution? in the former Soviet Union in sixteen months, following the Rose Revolution in Georgia in late 2003 and the Orange Revolution in Ukraine in late 2004 and early 2005.

As the Kyrgyz version was underway Western news media were asking the question ?Who?s next?? Candidates included other former Soviet states like Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Moldova and Uzbekistan. And Russia. Along with Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan those nations accounted for ten of the twelve members of the post-Soviet Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).

As Agence France-Presse detailed in early April of 2005: ?The CIS was founded in December 1991 on the very day the Soviet Union disappeared?.But over the past year and a half, three faithful Kremlin allies were toppled in?revolutions: Eduard Shevardnadze in Georgia, Leonid Kuchma in Ukraine, and, last week, Askar Akayev in Kyrgyzstan?.Even though Kyrgyzstan?s new interim leaders have vowed to continue their deposed predecessor?s Moscow-friendly policies, the lightning toppling of the government there has spawned speculation that the CIS would soon collapse.? [3]

The leader of the ?color revolution? prototype, Georgia?s Mikheil Saakashvili, gloated over the Kyrgyz ?regime change,? attributing the ?brave? actions of the opposition in Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan ?to the Georgia factor,? and added, ?We are not waiting for the development of events, but are doing our best to destroy the empire in the CIS.? [4]

Shortly after the uprising former Indian diplomat and political analyst M.K. Bhadrakumar wrote of the then seemingly inexorable momentum of ?color? revolts in the former Soviet Union:

?[A]ll the three countries [Georgia, Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan] are strategically placed in the post-Soviet space. They comprise Russia?s ?near abroad.?

?Washington has been expanding its influence in the arc of former Soviet republics ? in the Baltics?the Caucasus, and Central Asia ? in recent years with a tenacity that worries Moscow.

?Ever since 2003 when Mr. Akayev decided on allowing Russia to establish a full-fledged military base in Kant he knew he was on the American ?watch list.? The political temperature within Kyrgyzstan began to rise.

?The Americans made it clear in many ways that they desired a regime change in Bishkek?.The ?revolution? in the Central Asian state of Kyrgyzstan has already thrown up surprises. A comparison with the two earlier ?colour revolutions? in Georgia and Ukraine will be a good starting point.

?First, the striking similarities between the three ?revolutions? must be duly noted. All three are meant to signify the unstoppable spread of the fire of liberty lit by the United States in Afghanistan and Iraq in the aftermath of 9/11.

?But behind the rhetoric, the truth is that the U.S. wanted regime change in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan because of difficulties with the incumbent leadership. The leaders of all the three countries ? Eduard Shevardnadze in Georgia, Leonid Kuchma in Ukraine, and Askar Akayev in Kyrgyzstan ? had enjoyed the support of the U.S. during most of their rule.

?Washington had cited them repeatedly as the beacons of hope for democracy and globalisation in the territories of the former Soviet Union.

?Their trouble began when they incrementally began to edge towards a resurgent Russia under Vladimir Putin.? [5]

Seven weeks after Bhadrakumar?s column appeared his analysis would be confirmed by no less an authority on the matter than U.S. President George W. Bush.

Visiting the capital of Georgia a year and a half after its ?Rose Revolution,? he was hosted by his counterpart Mikheil Saakashvili, former State Department fellowship recipient and U.S. resident, who seized power in what can only be described as a putsch but nevertheless said:

?Georgia will become the main partner of the United States in spreading democracy and freedom in the post-Soviet space. This is our proposal. We will always be with you in protecting freedom and democracy.?

Bush reflected Saakashvili?s inflated estimate of himself: ?You are making many important contributions to freedom?s cause, but your most important contribution is your example. Hopeful changes are taking places from Baghdad to Beirut and Bishkek [Kyrgyzstan]. But before there was a Purple Revolution in Iraq or Orange Revolution in Ukraine or a Cedar Revolution in Lebanon, there was a Rose Revolution in Georgia.? [6]

A few days after the Kyrgyz coup Bush welcomed Ukraine?s ?orange? president Viktor Yushchenko ? who this January only received 5.45 per cent of the vote in his reelection bid ? and applauded his U.S.-assisted ascent to power, saying it ?may have looked like it was only a part of the history of Ukraine, but the Orange Revolution represented revolutions elsewhere as well?.We share a goal to spread freedom to other nations.? [7]

Beyond the threat of the dissolution of the CIS and of the CSTO, in April of 2005 Der Spiegel featured a report with the title ?Revolutions Speed Russia?s Disintegration.?

In part it revealed the prime movers behind the events in Kyrgyzstan:

?As early as February,? Roza Otunbayeva ? now the apparent head of the provisional government ? ?pledged allegiance to a small group of partners and sponsors of the Kyrgyz revolution, to ?our American friends? at Freedom House (who donated a printing press in Bishkek to the opposition), and to George Soros, a speculator who previously helped unseat Edward Shevardnadze?s government in Georgia.

?Trying to help the democratic process, the Americans poured some $12 million into Kyrgyzstan in the form of scholarships and donations ? and that was last year alone. Washington?s State Department even funded TV station equipment in the rebellious southern province town of Osh.? [8]

In June George Soros was obliging enough to confirm Otunbayeva?s gratitude was not without foundation by stating, ?I provided for Georgian public servants to get $1,200 a month?.And now I am ready to support the creation of a fund like this in Kyrgyzstan.? [9]

The two Georges ? Bush and Soros ? were not alone in fathering the ?color? geostrategic transformations from the Balkans to the former Soviet Union and the Middle East. They received generous assistance from the likes of Freedom House, the National Endowment for Democracy, the National Democratic Institute, the International Republican Institute and other alleged non-governmental organizations.

A week after the ?tulip? takeover the project director for Freedom House, Mike Stone, summed up the role of his organization with two words: ?Mission accomplished.? [10]

A British newspaper that interviewed him added, ?US involvement in the small, mountainous country is higher proportionally than it was for Georgia?s ?rose? revolution or Ukraine?s ?orange? uprising. [11]

Assistance also was provided by Western-funded and -trained ?youth activists? modeled after and trained by those organized in Yugoslavia to topple the government of Slobodan Milosevic in 2000:

Compare the names:

Yugoslavia: Otpor! (Resistance!)
Ukraine: Pora! (It?s Time!)
Georgia: Kmara (Enough)
Kyrgyzstan: KelKel (Stand Up and Go)

Behind them all, deposed Kyrgyz president Askar Akayev identified the true architects of his ouster. On April 2 he stated ?There were international organisations who supported and financed the Tulip Revolution in Kyrgyzstan.

?A week before these events I saw a letter on the internet signed by the US ambassador to Kyrgyzstan. It contained a detailed plan for the revolution.? [12]

The Kyrgyz Tulip (formerly Lemon, Pink and Daffodil) Revolution was as unconstitutional and as disruptive to the nation as its Georgian and Ukrainian predecessors were, but far more violent. Deaths and injuries occurred in the southern cities of Osh and Jalal Abad (Jalalabad, Jalal-Abad) and in the capital of Bishkek.

It was also the first ?color? revolt in a nation bordering China. Not only did Russia and China voice grave concerns over the developments in Kyrgyzstan, Iran did also, seeing where the trajectory of ?regime change? campaigns was headed.

?.

In the four decades of the Cold War political changes through elections or otherwise in any nation in the world ? no matter how small, impoverished, isolated and seemingly insignificant ? assumed importance far exceeding their domestic effects. World political analysts and policy makers asked the key question: Which way would the new government align itself, with the U.S. or the Soviet Union?

In the post-Cold War period the question is no longer one of political philosophy or socio-economic orientation, but this: How will the new administration support or oppose U.S. plans for regional and global dominance?

With Roza Otunbayeva as chief spokesperson if not head of a new Kyrgyz ?people?s government,? there is reason to believe that Washington will not be dissatisfied with the overthrow of her former ?tulip? partner Bakiyev. She has already confirmed that the American base at Manas will not be closed.

Less than two months after the 2005 coup Otunbayeva, then acting foreign minister, met with her U.S. counterpart Condoleezza Rice in Washington during which the latter assured her that ?the U.S. administration will continue to help the Kyrgyz government promote democratic processes in the country.? [13]

Shortly after the March ?democratic transformation,? its patron saint, Georgia?s Mikheil Saakashvili, boasted that ?Roza Otunbayeva worked in Tbilisi in recent years and was the head of UN office in Abkhazia. During the Rose Revolution she was in Georgia and knew everything that was happening?the Georgian factor was a catalyst of many things going on there [in Kyrgyzstan].?[14]

From the U.S. perspective she appears to have reliable bona fides.

Russia has put its air base in Kyrgyzstan on high alert, though comments from leading Russian government officials ? Prime Minister Vladimir Putin in particular ? indicate an acceptance of the uprising which has already caused 65 deaths and hundreds of injuries.

But Russia attempted to put the best face on the revolt five years ago also.

Which direction the next Kyrgyz government takes will have repercussions far beyond the nation?s small size and population (slightly over five million).

It could affect U.S. and NATO plans for the largest military offensive of the Afghan war scheduled to begin in two months in Kandahar province.

It could determine the future of the Collective Security Treaty Organization and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the two major potential barriers to Western military penetration of vast tracts of Eurasia.

The stakes could hardly be higher.

1) Stars and Stripes, June 16, 2009
2) Agence France-Presse, March 4, 2010
3) Agence France-Presse, April 3, 2005
4) The Messenger, March 31, 2005
5) The Hindu, March 28, 2005
6) Civil Georgia, May 10, 2005
7) Associated Press, April 4, 2005
8) Der Spiegel, April 4, 2005
9) Russian Information Agency Novosti, June 16, 2005
10) The Telegraph, April 2, 2005
11) Ibid
12) Associated Press, April 2, 2005
13) Interfax, June 15, 2005
14) Civil Georgia, March 30, 2005

Link

[Sampanviking]

In combination with the comments from Afghan President Karzai recently, one begins to wonder whether or not we are seeing an orchestrated move against the US presence in the region.

The loss of Manas airbase would be a major blow to the US and this must surely be a major objective of any SCO/CSTO supported uprising.

As you say Ruriko the tide of US influence that rushed in 5 years ago is now rushing out again, reflecting the new balance of power in the region.

[Sampanviking]

Another loose end? its only a month since the Iranians presented the Jundullah leader with claims that he had had meetings and training at Manas.

There does seem to be a lot of linkage and interconnectivity going on here.

[IchiNiSan]

The official initial story was all about the "inflation", hurting people's prosperity, fighting a corrupted government blablabla. But as this thread's members also noted that could be hardly the (only) reasons. It is indeed still too early to say if the opposition is going to be pro-US or pro-Russia, but when the day is passing by (at least in China) it seems like that it is turning out to be a pro-Russia "counter-color" revolution....

The following article is supposedly posted yesterday, be noted that this is 1 day before Putin claims that this revolt caught him by complete surprise. And when the Kyrgiz president is said to have fleed the country by flying from Manas?

http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insi...av040610a.shtml

[Note: Russia increased the export duties]

Quote

Many political experts in Bishkek believe Moscow is punishing Bakiyev for his administration’s failure to evict American forces from the Manas air base, outside of Bishkek. In what most observers saw as a quid pro quo, Moscow promised a $2.15 billion aid package in February 2009 on the same day Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev pledged to close the base. The Americans, however, remain at Manas. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Quote

The increase "will seriously affect Bakiyev’s position. The protest mood based on social-economic reasons is strong and is increasing among ordinary people, and the expected rise [in prices] of basic commodities and products will heighten the anti-Bakiyev mood," Knyazev added.

Quote

In the weeks before the imposition of the new duties on Bishkek, Kremlin leaders were reportedly angered by reports that Kyrgyz business kingpins were buying cheap Russian fuel and then reselling it at international rates to the American military at Manas. In a visible sign of displeasure, Russia’s paramount leader, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, snubbed Kyrgyz Prime Minister Daniyar Usenov during a visit to Moscow in late February.

We can only guess at this early stage how much Russia is involved in this counter-color revolution, and what else for the region will follow.

[Sampanviking]

It seems more and more likely that Russia supports the overthrow. News that the Interim President has phoned Putin and thanked Russia for its help and that Russia is sending another company of Paratroopers to its Airbase is pretty conclusive, as is the loud conjecture on the likely remaining lifespan of Manas.

It looks as though the SCO has scored a major coup and on a day that Russia and America sign up for Arms Control, meaning that diplomatic niceties have to be maintained.

It also seems likely that the ideology in play here is minimal, with players simply picking the patrons most capable of delivering the goods. That they should choose Russia is of itself a testimony to who low US stock has now fallen.

[Sampanviking]

There is an interesting allegation from a Protester this morning.

http://news.bbc.co.u...fic/8609502.stm

Quote

The snipers shooting from government buildings' rooftops were not from my country. They were foreigners. I don't know where they come from.

Given the persistent rumours of the US ferrying militants to spread the fighting to the Fergana Valley, the public notion of a lot of well armed/trained foreign gunmen shooting demonstrators is really another large nail in the Coffin of Manas Airbase.

Bakiyev is reported to be in the South of the country trying to rally support in his power base. Add to this the tone of Western reporting, it seems that the US has decided it has nothing to lose by giving him one last throw of the dice. Things could yet get worse before they get better.

[flyzies]

If I am not mistaken, US's lease agreement for Manas AB expires this July. Given it is likely Russia supported the overthrow, it will be unlikely the lease would be renewed.

[Sampanviking]

On schedule Bhadrakumar has arrived with a detailed review of the background, personalities and implications.

http://www.atimes.co...a/LD10Ag01.html

[Bill]

flyzies, on Apr 9 2010, 11:33 AM, said:

If I am not mistaken, US's lease agreement for Manas AB expires this July. Given it is likely Russia supported the overthrow, it will be unlikely the lease would be renewed.

That would be awesome... but kind of far stretched... I would find it a hard sell.

[IchiNiSan]

next station Mongolia

[flyzies]

I woke up this fine Saturday morning with this article in the world news section of my local newspapaer. This confirms it IMO...

http://www.smh.com.au/world/russia-helped-...00409-ryuv.html

Russia helped rout leaders: Kyrgyz rebels

BISHKEK: Thousands of defiant residents of Bishkek gathered in the Kyrgyz capital's main square yesterday to mourn victims of this week's bloody revolt as Kyrgyzstan's self-proclaimed new leadership said Russia had helped oust the President, Kurmanbek Bakiyev.

Omurbek Tekebayev, who is in charge of constitutional matters in the new government, said: ''Russia played its role in ousting Bakiyev. You've seen the level of Russia's joy when they saw Bakiyev gone.''

The Russian Prime Minister, Vladimir Putin, denied Moscow had played any part in the turmoil in the former Soviet republic, but he was the first foreign leader to recognise Roza Otunbayeva as the new Kyrgyz leader, and rang her soon after she announced she was in charge.

The deputy head of the interim government, Almazbek Atambayev, flew to Moscow yesterday for consultation with unspecified Russian government officials, ITAR-Tass news agency reported.

Ms Otunbayeva said her government controlled the whole country except for Mr Bakiyev's power base of Osh and Jalalabad in the south, and she had the backing of the armed forces and border guards.

The mourners gathered in Ala-Too Square yesterday blamed the ousted president for the bloodshed on Wednesday, when security forces in the square opened fire on a crowd that had tried to storm the main government building to protest against corruption and rising utility costs.

''We grieve over our heroes,'' said Khatima Immamaliyeva, 44, holding a red carnation and crying. ''They are real heroes who have sacrificed their lives for the future of Kyrgyzstan. Bakiyev must bear responsibility for the deaths.''

Mr Tekebayev said there was ''a high probability'' the lease of a US military base in Kyrgyzstan would be shortened.

The Manas base is used by the US and its NATO allies to support their forces in Afghanistan.

Opposition figures have said in the past that they want the base shut down. Kyrgyzstan also hosts a Russian military base and is the only country where both former Cold War foes have bases.

Ms Otunbayeva, who once served as Mr Bakiyev's foreign minister, said there were no plans to review the lease agreement for the base, which runs out in July. Her government would meet US diplomats for talks in Bishkek, she said.

US military officials said Kyrgyzstan halted flights for 12 hours on Wednesday, confining troops to the base. About 1100 troops are stationed there, including contingents from Spain and France.

The US President, Barack Obama, and the Russian President, Dmitry Medvedev, discussed Kyrgyzstan before signing an arms treaty in Prague on Thursday.

Mr Obama's senior director for Russian affairs, Michael McFaul, said the US did not view the conflict as a proxy struggle between the US and Russia.

''This is not some anti-American coup; that we know for sure,'' Mr McFaul said. ''And this is not some sponsored-by-the-Russians coup; there's just no evidence of that.''

[Sampanviking]

It must be curtains for Manas now,as Putin has demonstrated beyond reasonable doubt the consequences of reneging on such deals with him.

Now a question that raises its head.

We know that Arms Control was a deal with links to Star Wars and Iranian Sanctions, so was the closure of Manas?
More to the point, was Manas a card that the US side were planning to play at the summit only now to find it has been trumped already?

What other jockeying s from all sides can we expect in the lead up?

[Sampanviking]

Interim Govt says no change to status of Manas

http://news.bbc.co.u...fic/8613899.stm

Probably the most sensible thing they could say as it means that overt US support for Bakiyev becomes near impossible. It also buys time for the new Govt to take control and stabilise the country, although the risk of civil war remains real.

Long term though the Russians (and SCO?) will need Bishkek to deliver and Bishkek will be acutely aware of the cost of reneging on the deal. The US of course also realises this and so will be working covertly, they will also need to explore options with new regime of course, both the interim and the following one in six months time.

Everybody is going to smile at everybody else and try to appear not to be rocking the boat. Of course everyone will be rocking as hard as they dare!

[Sampanviking]

The interim govt appear firmly in control of the security forces now and are talking of an operation to apprehend the fugitive Bakiyev.

One suspects that the objective here is to persuade him to flee the country rather than try and rally support or resistance.

[Sampanviking]

It would appear he has left the country

http://news.bbc.co.u...fic/8623021.stm

[Sampanviking]

Interestingly, we learn that Bakiyev has taken refuge in Belarus.

http://news.bbc.co.u...fic/8632521.stm

Dare I suggest that Russia has scored another coup, by ensuring that Bakiyev leaves the scene and allows the new Government to consolidate its power, while also making sure that he stays out of the grasp of the US.

It also gives Moscow a useful insurance policy against the new Government becoming "unclear" about its obligations.

Sadly all this does indicate that Manas will survive to July 2011, but you have to doubt if it will last any longer.

In the meantime, the job for Russia is to ensure that the local political conditions are conducive to expanding Russian, CSTO, SCO activities in the country, while progressively restricting US ones.