[Sampanviking]

This is a follow on to the "Will US Arms Sales to Taiwan start a new cold war" thread

http://newcenturychi...?showtopic=1933

Its seems the timely to start a new thread, as we now have a situation which appears to have coalesced around the basic issues of Sanctions against Iran and the exchange rate level of the yuan. Into this, we also have the curious spat between the US and Israel over Settlements in East Jerusalem.

So what to make of it?

No doubt the issue of Sanctions is a real core issue and represents the interface between the core interests of both the US and PRC. Is then the rmb exchange rate a true core issue or just a subsidiary issue simply added for extra pressure.

How genuine also is the US/Israel spat? I have read one account that claims that it is no more than an elaborate pantomime between the allies to impress on China that Israel is determined to bomb Iran come what may. It may be true and then it may be spin.

I have always believed that one natural effect of the rise of the PRC will be to break the cycle of power by the US over the Middle East and thereby undermine its ability (or indeed the rationale) for defending Israel. If this is true and we are seeing the effect of this manifest by the US trying to pre-empt the consequences of this and distance itself from Israel, then we have a real power struggle in Washington as the lobby and non lobby factions battle for domination. In that sense the US healthcare bill could be a part of that same struggle and again explain why Obama has considered it important to postpone his state visits across the Pacific.

If the Israeli/US spat is not a pantomime, then I could venture another factor that could be in play and explain the rift and this indeed involves exchange rates. If I were a Chinese leader facing these circumstances, then playing the T Bond (or Suez) card would be a timely option.

Is this then what Hu JinTao has told Obama? "If you bomb Iran or allow any of your allies to bomb them either, that this would be so disadvantageous to our Core Interest and Regional Stability, that we would immediately offload a large sum of our holdings and drive the dollar through the floor"?

Conjecture of course, but its an interesting thought and does at least fit the facts that we see.

[IchiNiSan]

I sense we have won the battle over Iran for now, as Obama claimed he is willing to reopen dialogue with Iran this weekend. This could be because Israel is really to reluctant to take on teh blame for the start of a new war in the ME. Though I think whatever show Israel-USA is playing, it is only for the short-term.

The exchange rate is a political tool by the Americans to make China as the scapegoat for their own miseries and troubles, and trying to give an impression to the world and especially the American people that it is China to blame for the global financial crisis. It is an age-old tactic to divert the attention to an easy scapegoat, Hitler did that by blaming everything on the Jews. Hey, unlike the silent Jews back then, we have learned, and a full-out counter attack is organized and executed, even American Nobel-prize economists and Financial figures are stepping out to say how wrong this "pointing-fingers" is, and a China showing actual empirical data and factual statistics. The reality is that even if China is not competitive anymore, it would mean the greedy American importers will just buy from the rest of the world and/or the the ignorant American consumers will just pay for a much higher-price. Anyhow, I do believe that the Businesses and Bankers owing Washington will step in and tell those politicians that they have played enough and leave the exchange rate alone, it will only hurt them more than they can bare......

[IchiNiSan]

Browsing a bit around in Globalresearch, the following article suits pretty well in this thread, and is in line with my believe that the whole Israel-USA argument is a big show:

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?con...a&aid=18256

[wdl76]

IchiNiSan, on Mar 23 2010, 02:45 PM, said:

Browsing a bit around in Globalresearch, the following article suits pretty well in this thread, and is in line with my believe that the whole Israel-USA argument is a big show:

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?con...a&aid=18256

The US at the end of WW2 was a country to be admired, their aspiration of a free world and human rights are the ideals to be adopted by any nation.

Unfortunately going forward these aspiration has shifted into world domination at all costs and it get worst after the cold war, it has turned into a nation of hypocrits and self serving people.

[IchiNiSan]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economi...debt-fears.html

It's a dramatic headline "Sell off in US Treasuries raises sovereign debt fears", certainly got my attention....

Quote

It is unclear whether China is selling US Treasuries after cutting its holdings for three months in a row, or what its motive may be. There are concerns that Beijing may be sending a coded message before the US Treasury rules next month on whether China is a "currency manipulator", though experts say China is clearly still buying dollar assets because it is holding down the yuan against the greenback. Some investors may be selling Treasuries as a precaution against a trade spat.

Either China is still buying or not, any trade war would only hurt US much more than they can bare. Chinese and American exporters will suffer, Chinese importer will NOT suffer, but US importers will suffer. And some of them might need to start sourcing in Vietnam, India and whatsoever. Not to mention the American companies who invested in fixed assets and factories in China. Whatever happens, blocking Chinese goods will not revive the American extincted consumer goods manufacturing industries.

[Bill]

IchiNiSan, on Mar 30 2010, 02:29 PM, said:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economi...debt-fears.html

It's a dramatic headline "Sell off in US Treasuries raises sovereign debt fears", certainly got my attention....

Isn't the telegraph like the UK version of the FOX news in America? Those guy run some pretty wild stories.

[Sampanviking]

No No No, the Torygraph is a pillar of the establishment and read by thoroughly good chaps that went to good schools.

[IchiNiSan]

The following article in the NYT is pretty interesting:

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/06/world/06...iran&st=cse

Quote

For the first time, the United States is explicitly committing not to use nuclear weapons against nonnuclear states that are in compliance with the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, even if they attacked the United States with biological or chemical weapons or launched a crippling cyberattack.

This is most likely the biggest blackmail of all time to nations like Iran and North Korea to use nukes, as the definition of "compliance" would be totally subject to USA's own interpretation. Probably why Hu Jintao still decided to go to this summit, as it could turn out to be a turning point in history.

Quote

The most immediate test of the new strategy is likely to be in dealing with Iran, which has defied the international community by developing a nuclear program that it insists is peaceful but that the United States and its allies say is a precursor to weapons. Asked about the escalating confrontation with Iran, Mr. Obama said he was now convinced that “the current course they’re on would provide them with nuclear weapons capabilities,” though he gave no timeline.

He dodged when asked whether he shared Israel’s view that a “nuclear capable” Iran was as dangerous as one that actually possessed weapons.

“I’m not going to parse that right now,” he said, sitting in his office as children played on the South Lawn of the White House at a daylong Easter egg roll. But he cited the example of North Korea, whose nuclear capabilities were unclear until it conducted a test in 2006, which it followed with a second shortly after Mr. Obama took office.

In other words the USA is basically convinced that Iran will eventually have nuclear weapons no matter what just like North Korea. And dodging questions of if Iran would be a danger like Israel sees it says a lot. It seems like the USA will compromise and deal with a nuclear Iran, would be interesting how they would keep the Jews in lane to not become too itchy and jeopardize their compromises and deals with China and Russia.

Quote

Mr. Obama said he wanted a new United Nations sanctions resolution against Iran “that has bite,” but he would not embrace the phrase “crippling sanctions” once used by Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton. And he acknowledged the limitations of United Nations action. “We’re not na?ve that any single set of sanctions automatically is going to change Iranian behavior,” he said, adding “there’s no light switch in this process.”

Again, all signs that the USA and China (and Russia) had made some deals for a new round of sanctions, but not the so-called "crippling" ones like Hillary the Harpy was cheerleading for. So, would Iran cares too much about any sanctions anymore? Probably not anymore, after all they do also not want to be "nuked". And it could be considered as a victory behind the doors for Beijing, as a new round of sanctions would effectively turn Iran even closer to China in the longer terms, sanctions that most likely will not have much negative impact on the Chinese interests, thus to Iran not such a big loss of business with the West can easily be compensated with gains with China!

Quote

Mr. Obama was asked whether the American failure to make North Korea pay a heavy price for the aid to Syria undercut Washington’s credibility.

“I don’t think countries around the world are interested in testing our credibility when it comes to these issues,” he said. He said such activity would leave a country vulnerable to a nuclear strike, and added, “We take that very seriously because we think that set of threats present the most serious security challenge to the United States.”

Pretty boldly said, plain-out threatening to use any means, including nuclear weapons whoever challenge the US. Merely bluff? Don't think so for the country who cares even more about their "face" than the Chinese! Besides going to engage in these kinds of games, which China is getting very good at, this is more of a reasons why we should increase our nuclear deterrence capabilities even in a faster rate. The only way to really avoid a military conflict is when the US is absolutely convinced of the M.A.D. scenario whenever they dare to touch a hair of China.

[Sampanviking]

Commentaries I have read recently, are saying that much of this stance is down to the improved accuracy of special conventional weapons which can now do jobs, previously tasked to nukes. Much of this is to do with deep long range missile accuracy and weapon penetration abilities.

In that sense, this could make the world more dangerous and not less as it means that actions which were unthinkable due to there first use of nukes are feasible and tenable.