[Sampanviking]

My interest in this subject, is not so much what this plane (these planes) will be, but the guiding principle behind their development.

I believe that you can ascertain this from two simple sentences which we hear on a very regular basis from the Chinese Govt.

"We will not seek to impose hegemony on other nation. We are opposed to hegemony."

On the face of it, sentence two is simply a reinforcement of sentence one, but it can also be read as a fairly dramatic extension of it and given that diplomats seldom say things that are unnecessary, I strongly suspect that this interpretation is the correct one.

OK but what does this mean in relation to the JXX or J20?

Well I think it helps give us an idea of what to expect in both the short and medium terms.

Short term, I think we can expect to see the first fighter role out over the next few years and it will be; to quote Roger on SDF, a plane with about 80% of the capability of an F22 or F35, but at only 20-30% of the cost. The reason for this is simple, the task of this plane is not to be able to fly half way round the world to bomb an enemy and then fly home, but simply to act as a fighter/interceptor to protect Chinese Airspace and ensure that no enemy plane in the inventories of any other nation can fly in, attack and then fly out of Chinese Airspace with impunity.

The fact that it may be possible for the Chinese Plane to be in service before the F35 is resolved its mounting problems is another interesting facet, in which it may the F35 could find itself technically obsolete even before it is deployed. Something which of itself carries a world of possibilities worthy of discussion.

Having closed the door, I think we will then see the policy of "we are opposed to hegemony" acted out in full.
China will undoubtedly wish to continue work on more sophisticated aircraft closer in spec (or even exceeding) those of the US Fifth Gen. This however is not going to be the main thrust of development. I suspect that China will concentrate on taking the idea of the JXX or J20 and really hammering the production values in order to produce a range of aircraft built for export that have full Stealth Fighter Characteristics, but which come at a price tag low enough for the majority of developing countries to be able to afford in meaningful numbers.

This will at a stroke not only create a near monopoly for the Chinese Aviation Industry and elevate China to a leading player in the market of International Military Aviation, but it will also ensure that the majority of the world is able to protect its airspace against the best that any other nations can throw against them.

In other words is will strike a direct blow at the concept of US Hegemony and deliver it at a time when the US is unable to respond with new platforms, as its limited financial resources have already been committed until mid century on the Planes current built on in development. The US will have spent a fortune on planes capable of delivering virtually nothing.

This will help buy China the Strategic Space it requires while it overtakes the US and the EU combined between now and 2040 and ensure that its rise beyond mid century is unstoppable.

[Renmin]

Sampanviking, on Feb 5 2010, 05:24 AM, said:

My interest in this subject, is not so much what this plane (these planes) will be, but the guiding principle behind their development.

I believe that you can ascertain this from two simple sentences which we hear on a very regular basis from the Chinese Govt.

"We will not seek to impose hegemony on other nation. We are opposed to hegemony."

On the face of it, sentence two is simply a reinforcement of sentence one, but it can also be read as a fairly dramatic extension of it and given that diplomats seldom say things that are unnecessary, I strongly suspect that this interpretation is the correct one.

OK but what does this mean in relation to the JXX or J20?

Well I think it helps give us an idea of what to expect in both the short and medium terms.

Short term, I think we can expect to see the first fighter role out over the next few years and it will be; to quote Roger on SDF, a plane with about 80% of the capability of an F22 or F35, but at only 20-30% of the cost. The reason for this is simple, the task of this plane is not to be able to fly half way round the world to bomb an enemy and then fly home, but simply to act as a fighter/interceptor to protect Chinese Airspace and ensure that no enemy plane in the inventories of any other nation can fly in, attack and then fly out of Chinese Airspace with impunity.

The fact that it may be possible for the Chinese Plane to be in service before the F35 is resolved its mounting problems is another interesting facet, in which it may the F35 could find itself technically obsolete even before it is deployed. Something which of itself carries a world of possibilities worthy of discussion.

Having closed the door, I think we will then see the policy of "we are opposed to hegemony" acted out in full.
China will undoubtedly wish to continue work on more sophisticated aircraft closer in spec (or even exceeding) those of the US Fifth Gen. This however is not going to be the main thrust of development. I suspect that China will concentrate on taking the idea of the JXX or J20 and really hammering the production values in order to produce a range of aircraft built for export that have full Stealth Fighter Characteristics, but which come at a price tag low enough for the majority of developing countries to be able to afford in meaningful numbers.

This will at a stroke not only create a near monopoly for the Chinese Aviation Industry and elevate China to a leading player in the market of International Military Aviation, but it will also ensure that the majority of the world is able to protect its airspace against the best that any other nations can throw against them.

In other words is will strike a direct blow at the concept of US Hegemony and deliver it at a time when the US is unable to respond with new platforms, as its limited financial resources have already been committed until mid century on the Planes current built on in development. The US will have spent a fortune on planes capable of delivering virtually nothing.

This will help buy China the Strategic Space it requires while it overtakes the US and the EU combined between now and 2040 and ensure that its rise beyond mid century is unstoppable.

Nice analysis. The F-35 was originally supposed to be the United States low cost solution to the F-22 which costs a fortune. However, after numerous set backs, errors, the JSF has amounted to nothing more than another F-22 with VTOL features. Hence, its main purpose of being a low cost fighter has flunked. China has had a history of developing reasonably good fighters that may not be at the top of the line but are very affordable. The J-10 is one great example which serves as a deterent against most Western modern fighters like the F-16, F-18, and possibly F-15 in some circumstances but at a much lower cost. China has already commisioned a sizable number of J-10s in its airforce and is planning to do more while the F-22 might be superior to just about any fighter in the world so far, only a handful of these can be built and with the advanced anti-air defense network China has built today, the F-22 could be virtually useless in a role of aggression against China.

[Harley-One]

Renmin, on Feb 5 2010, 04:49 PM, said:

Nice analysis. The F-35 was originally supposed to be the United States low cost solution to the F-22 which costs a fortune. However, after numerous set backs, errors, the JSF has amounted to nothing more than another F-22 with VTOL features. Hence, its main purpose of being a low cost fighter has flunked. China has had a history of developing reasonably good fighters that may not be at the top of the line but are very affordable. The J-10 is one great example which serves as a deterent against most Western modern fighters like the F-16, F-18, and possibly F-15 in some circumstances but at a much lower cost. China has already commisioned a sizable number of J-10s in its airforce and is planning to do more while the F-22 might be superior to just about any fighter in the world so far, only a handful of these can be built and with the advanced anti-air defense network China has built today, the F-22 could be virtually useless in a role of aggression against China.

I read an evaluation on stealth given by a Chinese analyst suggesting [China might not dive in the fifth generation stealth technology lock stock and barrel] because researches indicates that the technology of stealth may soon prove will go obsolete just as that of the geometrical swing wing fighters; as the forward swept wing fighters; and also as the VSTOL fighter route. But, China will continued with the R&D of such science and apply it to limited used...

I speculate he/they mean pilotless fighter formats such as the X-45/Dark Sword http://cache.gawker.com/assets/images/4/20...lthUAVfight.jpg http://img133.images...514/uav4ja6.jpg therefore, I would expect for the J-10 series, the J-11 series, the JH-7 series even the FC-1 series to be brought to standards of that of fifth generation fighters as the following may be leading us towards:

中国三种歼-11：强于T-50！
隐身版 [YFC-1E] [枭龙战机] 即将装备中国空军

However, I do foresee China engaging in [ newer more area 51 type technology] which I would bet would shock the living daylights out of "Skunk Works"!

[Red Fox Ace]

Renmin, on Feb 5 2010, 11:49 AM, said:

With the advanced anti-air defense network China has built today, the F-22 could be virtually useless in a role of aggression against China.

The F-22 is an air superiority fighter. It's unlikely that it would have any reason to get near China itself, so it would most likely be out of the range of China's S-300s/air defense networks.



Most likely, the F-22 would be flying defensive air patrols on the Taiwanese side of the Strait with the purpose of warding off PLA aircraft (if one assumes a hypothetical US intervention in a Taiwan conflict.)

[Renmin]

Red Fox Ace, on Feb 10 2010, 11:57 PM, said:

The F-22 is an air superiority fighter. It's unlikely that it would have any reason to get near China itself, so it would most likely be out of the range of China's S-300s/air defense networks.



Most likely, the F-22 would be flying defensive air patrols on the Taiwanese side of the Strait with the purpose of warding off PLA aircraft (if one assumes a hypothetical US intervention in a Taiwan conflict.)

Air superiority fighters are also at times given the role of defending bombers as bombers rarely attack without an escort which also brings up the B-2 which could very much be used to attack China and fly into the Chinese air defence network.

[Harley-One]

Red Fox Ace, on Feb 11 2010, 04:57 AM, said:

The F-22 is an air superiority fighter. It's unlikely that it would have any reason to get near China itself, so it would most likely be out of the range of China's S-300s/air defense networks.



Most likely, the F-22 would be flying defensive air patrols on the Taiwanese side of the Strait with the purpose of warding off PLA aircraft (if one assumes a hypothetical US intervention in a Taiwan conflict.)

Internal weapon bays which allows for supercruise is a dangerous proposition (No B-2's needed) for any nation. Supercruise, [not stealth,] are the features that Generals in both the PLAAF and the PLAN said are [prerequisite] for any/all future forth generation, four and a half generation, and fifth generation or more advance chinese jet fighter systems. Stealth is but an extra add-on luxury option comparable to that of PCV, real leather, or fabric for seats, or so goes chinese experts on the field...

[Red Fox Ace]

Renmin, on Feb 11 2010, 01:38 AM, said:

B-2 which could very much be used to attack China and fly into the Chinese air defence network.

I've wondered, curiously, if American B-2s would take the route of flying up north from Diego Garcia, over India and the Himalayas, vector east, and strike China from internally within - coming from the direction of Tibet. The vast majority of PLA air defense networks are on the east coast of China, and face east.

Or, fly through Burma.




NATO used a similar approach to attack Serbian radars during the Kosovo campaign of 1999 (fly all the way around enemy radars, and then come back in in a U-turn loop.)

Attached File(s)

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[Harley-One]

Quote

B-2's slipping through India:

PLA Air Defence Radars
http://www.ausairpow...ADS-Radars.html
(Spotted all along the Himalayas so not to worry)

Quote

Never, never, worry about those 1500 missiles...

Unlike the DDP who calls themselves distant cousins
to us, we Mainladers and overseas Chinese are not that silly stupid...
We believe in the saying "Blood is Thicker Than Water".

http://washingtontimes.com/news/2010/feb/1...timating-china/
(Read paragraph 2)

[Red Fox Ace]

Edi, the advantage always lies with the offense. The offense will always pick the least defended, or unguarded, hole in air defense networks and slip through there.



And it's simply not economical for China to build a circle around its entire border consisting of S-300/HQ SAMs.

[Harley-One]

Red Fox Ace, on Feb 13 2010, 12:13 AM, said:

Edi, the advantage always lies with the offense. The offense will always pick the least defended, or unguarded, hole in air defense networks and slip through there.



And it's simply not economical for China to build a circle around its entire border consisting of S-300/HQ SAMs.

Even if these B-2's does act like an invasive computer virus, which it probably does qualify as same, it's still going to take plenty of B-2's/F-22's _{(How much does B-2's cost a piece? I know F-22 are estimated at USD $150 million bucks per)} to break through what's known as this Chinese firewall which consists of thousands of SAM's of all grades and models; of J-7's/8's/10's/Su-27/30;J-11B's (all BVR SD-10A's and BVR SD-10B's armed); and God knows what other means "your distant-cousin's" in the Mainland have to take down invasive PC-like worns (like the hundreds of Taiwan U-2's downed over China over the years) that are spotted all along the Chinese coast line and and in China's western front...

Now, how economical is it to try and maybe sneak a dozen or so B-2's/f-22/cruuise missiles (which are representative roughly 10% or so B-2's/Su-22/cruise missiles) which does breach Chinese border defenses and make it into China's west, or east ????

Plane per plane, pilot per pilot, missile per missile, it's dirt cheap for China to pump these items out from out of its massive Chinese sweatshop style assembly line (probably @10-20% the cost it would to produce in the US or in Taiwan) in a continuous uninterupted process. But how long however can the US-Taipei partnership sustain such continuous and uninterupted effort and cost???

Anyway, as I said, don't concern yourself with [what you label as this distant cousins of yours in the mainland] will do to this Island which I label as an Island under the Chinese sun because, deep down, mainlanders harbors this mentality known as "blood is thicker than water" even if you don't....

[Red Fox Ace]

Harley-One, on Feb 12 2010, 09:42 PM, said:

Even if these B-2's does act like an invasive computer virus, which it probably does qualify as same, it's still going to take plenty of B-2's/F-22's, How much does B-2's cost a piece? I know F-22 are estimated at USD $150 million bucks per to break through what's known as this Chinese firewall which consists of thousands of SAM's of all grades and models

The point is not how many SAM missiles China has - it would make no difference as to whether the PLA has 5,000 or 20,000,000,000 of them. The point is whether or not there is a geographical gap in the deployment of these SAM networks. If there is, then the B-2s can slip through.



China's border is thousands of kilometers long. Can the PLA really afford to cover the entire length of it with SAM networks? It would be extremely costly to do so.

Harley-One, on Feb 12 2010, 09:42 PM, said:

Anyway, as I said, don't concern yourself with what you label as this distant cousins of yours in the mainland will do to this Island which I label as an Island under the Chinese sun because, deep down, mainlanders harbors this mentality known as "blood is thicker than water" even if you don't....

A curious question for you, Edi. What's wrong with Taiwan being an independent nation, if all Taiwanese people acknowledged that they were Han Chinese and that they were blood brothers and that, yes, blood is thicker than water?


The fact that Taiwan was an independent nation wouldn't change the fact that both islanders and mainlanders were Han Chinese, would it?

[Harley-One]

Red Fox Ace, on Feb 13 2010, 02:57 AM, said:

The point is not how many SAM missiles China has - it would make no difference as to whether the PLA has 5,000 or 20,000,000,000 of them. The point is whether or not there is a geographical gap in the deployment of these SAM networks. If there is, then the B-2s can slip through.

I'm not going to dig this out for you, Red. That's a job for yourself...
http://www.google.cn/search?q=%D6%D0%87%F8...N&ie=GB2312
Again, if you are not into Hanzi, your pop is guaranteed to help you out...

Quote

China's border is thousands of kilometers long. Can the PLA really afford to cover the entire length of it with SAM networks? It would be extremely costly to do so.

again, you'll just have to sort it out for yourself, Red...

http://www.google.cn/search?hl=zh-CN&i...mp;aq=f&oq=

I'm beat and don't want any of this psychology stuff you are trying to work on your [distant couisins] in the mainland...

One thing you must understand is this: even if you use chastity protection on you, you can still get impregnated just for taking a dip in the swimming pools therefore I wouldn't go dippity dip dip if I were you ...

Quote

A curious question for you, Edi. What's wrong with Taiwan being an independent nation, if all Taiwanese people acknowledged that they were Han Chinese and that they were blood brothers and that, yes, blood is thicker than water?

I'll allow the other members of this board answer this question because I'm a dummy. I just don't posses the extremes of IQ's in me to be able to figure that one out.

Quote

The fact that Taiwan was an independent nation wouldn't change the fact that both islanders and mainlanders were Han Chinese, would it?

Jeezz, I can't figure that one out either.

[Red Fox Ace]

Harley-One, on Feb 12 2010, 10:33 PM, said:

I'm not going to dig this out for you, Red. That's a job for yourself...



again, you'll just have to sort it out for yourself, Red...



I'll allow the other members of this board answer this question because I'm a dummy. I just don't posses the extremes of IQ's in me to be able to figure that one out.



Jeezz, I can't figure that one out either.

Quite the edifying and informative response. Thank you Edi, for the meaningful, scholarly and well-thought-out feedback in this post.

[Roger604]

Red Fox Ace, on Feb 12 2010, 09:57 PM, said:

The point is not how many SAM missiles China has - it would make no difference as to whether the PLA has 5,000 or 20,000,000,000 of them. The point is whether or not there is a geographical gap in the deployment of these SAM networks. If there is, then the B-2s can slip through.

China's border is thousands of kilometers long. Can the PLA really afford to cover the entire length of it with SAM networks? It would be extremely costly to do so.

A curious question for you, Edi. What's wrong with Taiwan being an independent nation, if all Taiwanese people acknowledged that they were Han Chinese and that they were blood brothers and that, yes, blood is thicker than water?

The fact that Taiwan was an independent nation wouldn't change the fact that both islanders and mainlanders were Han Chinese, would it?

The backbone of China's SAM defenses are HQ-9 series. The export variant of this has comparable performance to S-300 PMU-1. Presumably then PLA's own variant is better -- PMU-2 at least.

This system is effective at 200 km. Several dozens of battalions can cover the entire Chinese border. Of course, these are all indigenous systems so mass production and deployment is cheap and easy.


Taiwanese people who do not profess to be the same nation as mainland China have no right to live on Chinese territory. The island of Formosa is Chinese territory and independence minded people can have their own nation elsewhere.

[Harley-One]

Roger604, on Feb 14 2010, 08:24 PM, said:

The backbone of China's SAM defenses are HQ-9 series. The export variant of this has comparable performance to S-300 PMU-1. Presumably then PLA's own variant is better -- PMU-2 at least.

This system is effective at 200 km. Several dozens of battalions can cover the entire Chinese border. Of course, these are all indigenous systems so mass production and deployment is cheap and easy.


Taiwanese people who do not profess to be the same nation as mainland China have no right to live on Chinese territory. The island of Formosa is Chinese territory and independence minded people can have their own nation elsewhere.

Our dearest [distant-cousin] Foxy Ace have all grown; he wants to live a life of independence away from the rest of the family; he is declaring and making claims that that room that he's been sleeping in since day one is legally a separate and independent detachment distinct from that of the rest of family dwelling. Chainsaw anybody ???

[sam hung]

Chinese F-22? Maybe F-22 and J-10 had babies

[Harley-One]

sam hung, on Mar 12 2010, 09:28 PM, said:

Chinese F-22? Maybe F-22 and J-10 had babies

Merely a figment of our imagination. We will have 4G (5G Western standard) ideas to R&D with but techs such as [ Dark Sword / X-45 ] is likely where it's all going to be at for the Chinese, my opinion. I mean Chinese are not dumb. Why waste billions of dollars trying to catch up to/with F-22 technology when if and when you are have really mastered it, an army of Chinese geeks could be running the air show far far from the dangers of battlefield and joy-sticking their Dark Swords and X-45's from out of a gaming consul like that of an air combat play station of your everyday neighborhood shopping mall???

[Ruriko Ikusawa]

It think it is a PAK-FA.

[China Exile]

Ruriko Ikusawa, on Mar 13 2010, 08:02 AM, said:

It think it is a PAK-FA.

I second you.

[Xiongmao]

That PAK FA in the photo above was a joint project between Russia and India so it's probably safe to assume that once it goes into service in the Russian air force, then India will shortly afterwards be getting its own stealth figher as well (the PAK FA is reputed to be a contender to the F22).

I agree with Harley-One in that remotely controlled UAVs are the way to go in the combat arena as these can be mass produced and controlled by videogame geeks in a bunker somewhere. Also, because they don't have to have life support systems for a human pilot, they can be a lot smaller and cheaper to manufacture.

Also, I think that wherease the USA has spent billions on jet fighter research and technologies like stealth, the smart money will be on research to take down said fighters, e.g. smart missiles. Yuan for yuan, missiles must be a better use of precious resources that trying to outmatch one for one the latest fighter out of Lockheed's workshops.