[Sampanviking]

Just to add a little fun to the Year End/New Year, I think it will be interesting just to have an informed bit of speculation on the subject of China in Space. Please feel free to contribute your thoughts and hopes (but please try to avoid simple fantasy).

After a few faltering steps in the 20th, will the 21st Century be the one that sees mankind become a real Space Faring Race? I think so, although I think a fairly slow start will start to snowball untill a real avalanche kicks off in mid century.

I have no doubt that China will be a major player in this and that from about 2020 onwards much the impetus for its drive will be commerical as it strives to secure resources and environment for its continued economic growth.

To that end I wonder if Planets will be the main objective (ie the Moon and Mars) or simply building large Orbital and Deep Space Industrial Facilities to process Metals from Asteroids and Gasses from Comets. I also wonder how much interest China will have in colonising planets at this stage, given the lack of usable life support resources on them and the cost of lifting refined resources from them. Orbital facilities should be able to obtain all the resources for construction, expansion and exploration from Space Objects and also be able to return finished items to the Earth for use and consumption.

One thing I do wonder about is whether Maglev technology is capable of producing a cost effective Space Elevator; a system where a Ground Base is connected physically to a Geostationary Orbital facility and where Goods and Personnel can be lifted and lowered to and from Orbit without the need for Rockets. Such a facility would constitute a true Space Port and would enable a much easier method for moving from Ground to Orbit. It would also be the key to be able to construct really large Orbital Bases and Ships in Orbit without them ever needing to be constructed or assembled on the ground.

The 21st Century will be about exploring and exploiting the Solar System and sending people as far out as the Oort Cloud, which is nearly 3/4 of a light year from the Sun. The Solar System is vast and will contain humanity in its expansion and growth for several centuries yet and so I think that the Stars will remain a distant dream. Possibly a probe sent to Alpha Centuri, but nothing more.

Politically, it will be interesting as various blocks will be out in Space competing with the others and in many respects, the 21st Century may come to resemble the age of expansion of the 17th and 18th Centuries. China will no doubt be at the hart of one major group (presumably an Asian Union of some description) and will probably be in competition with US/EU. It will be intersting if other blocks emerge and start acting independently or whether they simply hitch their wagons to either East or West as best seems to suit.

Well that's my 2 penneth, now what about yours?

[Player 0]

http://news.bbc.co.u...ope/8435162.stm

http://www.businessw...s/D9CTMB1O0.htm

http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2009/12/ru...Stories+2%29%29

Nothing to do with China directly, but Russia is certainly recovering and off to a good start to 2010.

Nothing really much to add to all this Sampan, except just to say that what you and others have similarly said on China's rise is set in stone, deny all they want but the opposition can no longer deny this reality without looking foolish, at this point what is there really to talk about?

[Sampanviking]

Courage Mon Brave!!

Its not time to pack up and go home yet. We have won the first battle, but are still far from a home run. China has launched, but we must now plot her trajectory and watch for obstacles and dangers.

[Sampanviking]

The US has cancelled its manned Moon missions due by 2020.

http://news.bbc.co.u...ech/8489097.stm

Looks like China will be next country to walk there after all!

[Bill]

There is still the Japanese space program, the Indian space program, and the EU space program. We certainly can't relax.

A bigger problem in my opinion is private contractors. The invisible hand is a powerful force, and it will be a competent competitor. China's space industry is mostly governmental. I hope we will someday pass the west in the private sector of this area.

[IchiNiSan]

yongke, on Feb 2 2010, 08:56 AM, said:

There is still the Japanese space program, the Indian space program, and the EU space program. We certainly can't relax.

A bigger problem in my opinion is private contractors. The invisible hand is a powerful force, and it will be a competent competitor. China's space industry is mostly governmental. I hope we will someday pass the west in the private sector of this area.

We should be happy with competition, healthy competition is what brings out the creativity, innovations and progress.