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I have tried to summarise some key porions on SDF and so repeat some posts here
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The ultimate driver of which is the fact; which must slowly be dawning in Washington, that the "moment of Unipolarity" is over and that History has started itself up once again.
The key lesson to be learned from the EEZ arguement is that what constitues law in the Chinese controlled areas is now a matter for China to decide and nobody else. The dispatch of the destroyer is almost comical as very clearly any decision for it to use force against the Chinese just 75 miles from a major base would simply be suicide by proxy.
The original, unanswered and apparently forgotten question from the beginning of this affair was why all the fuss now? I think it would be extremely naive to look at this through any other light than that from the prism of the current North Korea crisis. I am amazed how the current tensions can be ignored especially on a Chinese Military forum!! The Japanese threat to try and intercept the missile is credible and obviously sanctioned by the US. The threats of North Korean full retaliation are also credible and to regard them as sabre rattling would be naive in the extreme.
The basic strategic realities of the region remain unchanged and a US presence in North Korea today is just as unacceptable to China and Russia as it was Fifty years ago.
Clearly unless China was prepared to see this eventuality pass, it would need to prepare its forces for possible interdiction and an early act of this preperation would be the dispatch of its entire available Submarine Fleet to take up advance patrol positions. It is this that the Impeccable and Victorious were listening so aggressively for and why the Chinese responded so strongly in kind.
Into all of this however has stepped Chinese Premier Wen Jia Bao and with the simple expression of "worry" Little old Grandpa Wen has caused more fear in DC than any military mobilisation would elicit. In a few simple words Wen has reminded the world of the last time that Global power shifted decisively from Great Britain to the US and how the US demonstrated it to remove any possible lingering doubt, by voicing first opposition to and then orchistrating a devastating run on Sterling during the Suez Crisis.
So what exactly is the Chinese message? that Unipolarity has passed and America must now decide whether it wants the world to realise this slowly, in a controlled way, over a respectable period of time, or in a very sudden and brutal fashion.
Weighing it all up with the whole situation, I have to say that I am glad its not a choice I have to make!
The key lesson to be learned from the EEZ arguement is that what constitues law in the Chinese controlled areas is now a matter for China to decide and nobody else. The dispatch of the destroyer is almost comical as very clearly any decision for it to use force against the Chinese just 75 miles from a major base would simply be suicide by proxy.
The original, unanswered and apparently forgotten question from the beginning of this affair was why all the fuss now? I think it would be extremely naive to look at this through any other light than that from the prism of the current North Korea crisis. I am amazed how the current tensions can be ignored especially on a Chinese Military forum!! The Japanese threat to try and intercept the missile is credible and obviously sanctioned by the US. The threats of North Korean full retaliation are also credible and to regard them as sabre rattling would be naive in the extreme.
The basic strategic realities of the region remain unchanged and a US presence in North Korea today is just as unacceptable to China and Russia as it was Fifty years ago.
Clearly unless China was prepared to see this eventuality pass, it would need to prepare its forces for possible interdiction and an early act of this preperation would be the dispatch of its entire available Submarine Fleet to take up advance patrol positions. It is this that the Impeccable and Victorious were listening so aggressively for and why the Chinese responded so strongly in kind.
Into all of this however has stepped Chinese Premier Wen Jia Bao and with the simple expression of "worry" Little old Grandpa Wen has caused more fear in DC than any military mobilisation would elicit. In a few simple words Wen has reminded the world of the last time that Global power shifted decisively from Great Britain to the US and how the US demonstrated it to remove any possible lingering doubt, by voicing first opposition to and then orchistrating a devastating run on Sterling during the Suez Crisis.
So what exactly is the Chinese message? that Unipolarity has passed and America must now decide whether it wants the world to realise this slowly, in a controlled way, over a respectable period of time, or in a very sudden and brutal fashion.
Weighing it all up with the whole situation, I have to say that I am glad its not a choice I have to make!
and regarding the Japanese threat.
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This is a highly aggressive act and far more than an exchange of fire betweem gunboats. The T2; if it is the DPRK's LRBM, is a cornerstone of their Strategic Defence and an essential ingrediant in their Nuclear Weapons programme. An attack on the missile is an attack on North Korean security at the most fundemantal level.
If this were not bad enough it takes place against a backdrop of severe global economic hardship and when many of the players have transitional or weak leadership, which means plenty of internal jockying and struggles.
A direct challange to North Korean security at a time when the power of the dear leader is unclear can only lead to a very robust response. Please also do not forget the DPRK's secret weapon; the fact that once shooting starts all the major players (who are afterall most of the worlds most powerful nations by one measure or another) have no choice but to become involved, as no side can afford such a dramatic shift in the Strategic Geopolitical sitution as to have the Peninsular reunified against their interest.
Most sane nations will always bend over backwards to stop the fighting from starting, but once it does start, the priorties change and they will have no option but to switch from prevention to winning. Rapid escalation cannot be viewed simply as a possibility, but as a given and policy based on this view is exactly what we are seeing, hence the "unprecendented" diplomatic traffic in the region especially between the US, China and Russia.
If this were not bad enough it takes place against a backdrop of severe global economic hardship and when many of the players have transitional or weak leadership, which means plenty of internal jockying and struggles.
A direct challange to North Korean security at a time when the power of the dear leader is unclear can only lead to a very robust response. Please also do not forget the DPRK's secret weapon; the fact that once shooting starts all the major players (who are afterall most of the worlds most powerful nations by one measure or another) have no choice but to become involved, as no side can afford such a dramatic shift in the Strategic Geopolitical sitution as to have the Peninsular reunified against their interest.
Most sane nations will always bend over backwards to stop the fighting from starting, but once it does start, the priorties change and they will have no option but to switch from prevention to winning. Rapid escalation cannot be viewed simply as a possibility, but as a given and policy based on this view is exactly what we are seeing, hence the "unprecendented" diplomatic traffic in the region especially between the US, China and Russia.
It does appear that many unfortunate tides in world affairs are threatening to collide over the Korean peninsular with the very real chance of wholly calamitous consequences.
